On Sheiks, Handicapping Hiatuses, and the Dangerous Waters of Backwards Handicapping
Watching the live coverage from Saratoga on Saturday, I had an epiphany: In my next life, I want to be an Arab sheik. And not just any Arab sheik -- no, I want to be part of the Maktoum family. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm very happy living the handicapping life, but come on! Buy the world's best horses, travel the world in style to watch them race, and make a habit of doing post-race interviews on ESPN -- now that's a life. And, best yet, you know he can afford that top-shelf scotch of which I can only dream.
Speaking of the Dubai Empire, it was an impressive weekend all around for their 3-year olds. I was thrilled to see an entry from Discreet Cat, who we last watching beating up on Classic division leader Invasor in Dubai in March. While a stakes horse entered in an allowance always raises some eyebrows (Wild Fit and Karen's Caper are two recent examples of the negative consequences), I hoped that it might not be a cautionary sign, but merely an inclusion in a big weekend of racing for the Maktoum family. And, I think his scintillating performance on Friday ended any speculation that he's not at the top of his game -- and that he is one of the best horses in the world. On Saturday, Henny Hughes survived ridiculous fractions to pull away and win the King's Bishop impressively and, of course, Bernardini showed that he's the top three year old by laughing at the challenge from Bluegrass Cat. Ah, yes...it's good to be a sheik.
Following the wonders of Travers weekend, The Handicapping Life began a self-imposed handicapping hiatus for the next week. During this brief absence, the wife and I will be permanently escaping the oddities of Burlington, Vermont and arriving in Washington D.C. for the next chapter of our lives. Yes, while moving unfortunately requires a large amount of attention, the hiatus is also driven by a desire to sit back, clear my mind, and attempt to free myself from a handicapping trap that I've fallen into recently -- the dangerous waters of backwards handicapping.
At its core, backwards handicapping involves an attempt to find, while handicapping a new race, a scenario that has previously brought you success. It could be a pace meltdown, an unseen class advantage, a hidden pedigree discovery, or any number of different circumstances you'd like to see occur again. But, when you're approaching a race from this method, it's no different than other situations in life in which you really want to believe that something is true. Like wanting to believe in the faithfulness of a wandering spouse or in the impending improvement of an unbearable work situation, you look for the little bits of information that support the conclusion that you so desperately want. And, when you terribly desire something to be true, you unfortunately tend to deceive yourself into believing that it is.
Over the past month, I've been consciously attempting to do just that in my handicapping. Through my own data-mining, I'd discovered certain wagers that tended to be very profitable over the past year -- place/show bets on particular horses, trifecta and superfecta races with a clear pace scenarios, and, especially, one-way exactas with a heavy favorite and unlikely second place horse. Naturally, I decided that I would only wager on these particular situations and thus improve my overall ROI dramatically. Armed with these scenarios, I began to put them in my mind before I handicapped a race, looking to find matches for these preconceived ideas. In contrast to a more straight-forward method -- which involves analyzing a race with a clear mind and letting the race intuitively reveal what potential it contains -- every decision while handicapping backwards is based on the data being argued into, or out of, some sort of previously successful conclusion. As a result, backwards handicapping carries a very strong potential for self-deception. And, when I'm handicapping like this, the overall results simply aren't close to the same, and it's time to clear my head and attempt to restore an untainted intuition.
For me, other than the above mentioned situation, backwards handicapping typically rears its head after picking a high-priced winner or worse yet, passing on such an opportunity. As an aside, the same thought phenomenon also occurs when analyzing horse appearance in the paddock. For me, when I go in looking for a horse to look sharp or look dull, I invariably find that I can make an argument to fit either of these profiles. And, you guessed it -- these conclusions are rarely correct. But, when I just look at the paddock and let the information come to me sans preconception, the information is much more reliable and not tainted by clever argument. And, after the information is gathered, then I can decide whether it fits any profile that leads to long term success.
Much like other things in life which you wish to be true, seeking a certain conclusion in your handicapping brings with it the potential of self-deception. And, when you've reached your conclusion through this biased method, the something that you've found typically isn't what you expected. When you notice this happening and your returns suffering accordingly, it's not a bad time to close the form, walk away, and maybe even daydream of being reincarnated as the heir to the throne of Dubai.
Speaking of the Dubai Empire, it was an impressive weekend all around for their 3-year olds. I was thrilled to see an entry from Discreet Cat, who we last watching beating up on Classic division leader Invasor in Dubai in March. While a stakes horse entered in an allowance always raises some eyebrows (Wild Fit and Karen's Caper are two recent examples of the negative consequences), I hoped that it might not be a cautionary sign, but merely an inclusion in a big weekend of racing for the Maktoum family. And, I think his scintillating performance on Friday ended any speculation that he's not at the top of his game -- and that he is one of the best horses in the world. On Saturday, Henny Hughes survived ridiculous fractions to pull away and win the King's Bishop impressively and, of course, Bernardini showed that he's the top three year old by laughing at the challenge from Bluegrass Cat. Ah, yes...it's good to be a sheik.
Following the wonders of Travers weekend, The Handicapping Life began a self-imposed handicapping hiatus for the next week. During this brief absence, the wife and I will be permanently escaping the oddities of Burlington, Vermont and arriving in Washington D.C. for the next chapter of our lives. Yes, while moving unfortunately requires a large amount of attention, the hiatus is also driven by a desire to sit back, clear my mind, and attempt to free myself from a handicapping trap that I've fallen into recently -- the dangerous waters of backwards handicapping.
At its core, backwards handicapping involves an attempt to find, while handicapping a new race, a scenario that has previously brought you success. It could be a pace meltdown, an unseen class advantage, a hidden pedigree discovery, or any number of different circumstances you'd like to see occur again. But, when you're approaching a race from this method, it's no different than other situations in life in which you really want to believe that something is true. Like wanting to believe in the faithfulness of a wandering spouse or in the impending improvement of an unbearable work situation, you look for the little bits of information that support the conclusion that you so desperately want. And, when you terribly desire something to be true, you unfortunately tend to deceive yourself into believing that it is.
Over the past month, I've been consciously attempting to do just that in my handicapping. Through my own data-mining, I'd discovered certain wagers that tended to be very profitable over the past year -- place/show bets on particular horses, trifecta and superfecta races with a clear pace scenarios, and, especially, one-way exactas with a heavy favorite and unlikely second place horse. Naturally, I decided that I would only wager on these particular situations and thus improve my overall ROI dramatically. Armed with these scenarios, I began to put them in my mind before I handicapped a race, looking to find matches for these preconceived ideas. In contrast to a more straight-forward method -- which involves analyzing a race with a clear mind and letting the race intuitively reveal what potential it contains -- every decision while handicapping backwards is based on the data being argued into, or out of, some sort of previously successful conclusion. As a result, backwards handicapping carries a very strong potential for self-deception. And, when I'm handicapping like this, the overall results simply aren't close to the same, and it's time to clear my head and attempt to restore an untainted intuition.
For me, other than the above mentioned situation, backwards handicapping typically rears its head after picking a high-priced winner or worse yet, passing on such an opportunity. As an aside, the same thought phenomenon also occurs when analyzing horse appearance in the paddock. For me, when I go in looking for a horse to look sharp or look dull, I invariably find that I can make an argument to fit either of these profiles. And, you guessed it -- these conclusions are rarely correct. But, when I just look at the paddock and let the information come to me sans preconception, the information is much more reliable and not tainted by clever argument. And, after the information is gathered, then I can decide whether it fits any profile that leads to long term success.
Much like other things in life which you wish to be true, seeking a certain conclusion in your handicapping brings with it the potential of self-deception. And, when you've reached your conclusion through this biased method, the something that you've found typically isn't what you expected. When you notice this happening and your returns suffering accordingly, it's not a bad time to close the form, walk away, and maybe even daydream of being reincarnated as the heir to the throne of Dubai.
posted by Seth Abrams at 3:07 PM
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