The Fundamental Theorem of Handicapping
About a week ago, I closed with a question:
"What is the more important factor in being a successful horseplayer -- skill or luck? Or, more specifically, the ability to see a race as clearly as possible, or the ability to admit that most clarity is false?"
These questions directly relate to a line of thinking I've been exploring for quite some time. I've spent much of my adult professional life as a "truth seeker." I spent a good portion of time in academic pursuits where I'd research and think incessantly and seek the right answers to questions. And, after school, while working as an attorney for an appellate court, I was concerned with finding the right resolution to the intellectual problem posed by the case at hand. In both situations, there was one absolute truth to be found, and it was always a part of my job to find it. If I couldn't find an answer, it was always a question of looking harder or thinking deeper. I was perpetually optimistic about the eventual revelation of truth through effort.
However, as a handicapper, this optimism was misplaced; in a particular race, repeated effort or deeper thought after a certain point does not get any closer to truth. After a while, I discovered that the reason was simple: No truth is possible before a race is run, and no right answer can be found. I found that as a a handicapper, you must not be guided not by a desire for truth or knowledge or a right answer. Because no matter how deeply or skillfully you look at a particular race, you can never know what is going to happen. And, this, my friends, is the Fundamental Theorem of Handicapping.
It's almost ridiculous in its obviousness and begs for a response of "so what." But, from my own experience and development as a horseplayer, I've seen how powerfully misleading a belief in the existence of a right answer can be. In many races, it drove me to elevate secondary factors to separate contenders. And, as a result, I would reach a level of false certainty and bet with false confidence. But, unfortunately for the seeker of pure clarity, even with all the careful analysis and detailed research, you can never truly see what is going to happen. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.
Some knowledge is, of course, essential. I believe that there is a line -- http://www.trackchampion.com/abrams_balance.aspx -- which separates legitimate initial analysis from counterproductive right answer searching. After this point, when analyzing a particular race, making repeated efforts to reach a level of certainty will always be in vain. Indeed, finding the point where you realize that any additional clarity is false is a key to this game.
S.A.
"What is the more important factor in being a successful horseplayer -- skill or luck? Or, more specifically, the ability to see a race as clearly as possible, or the ability to admit that most clarity is false?"
These questions directly relate to a line of thinking I've been exploring for quite some time. I've spent much of my adult professional life as a "truth seeker." I spent a good portion of time in academic pursuits where I'd research and think incessantly and seek the right answers to questions. And, after school, while working as an attorney for an appellate court, I was concerned with finding the right resolution to the intellectual problem posed by the case at hand. In both situations, there was one absolute truth to be found, and it was always a part of my job to find it. If I couldn't find an answer, it was always a question of looking harder or thinking deeper. I was perpetually optimistic about the eventual revelation of truth through effort.
However, as a handicapper, this optimism was misplaced; in a particular race, repeated effort or deeper thought after a certain point does not get any closer to truth. After a while, I discovered that the reason was simple: No truth is possible before a race is run, and no right answer can be found. I found that as a a handicapper, you must not be guided not by a desire for truth or knowledge or a right answer. Because no matter how deeply or skillfully you look at a particular race, you can never know what is going to happen. And, this, my friends, is the Fundamental Theorem of Handicapping.
It's almost ridiculous in its obviousness and begs for a response of "so what." But, from my own experience and development as a horseplayer, I've seen how powerfully misleading a belief in the existence of a right answer can be. In many races, it drove me to elevate secondary factors to separate contenders. And, as a result, I would reach a level of false certainty and bet with false confidence. But, unfortunately for the seeker of pure clarity, even with all the careful analysis and detailed research, you can never truly see what is going to happen. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.
Some knowledge is, of course, essential. I believe that there is a line -- http://www.trackchampion.com/abrams_balance.aspx -- which separates legitimate initial analysis from counterproductive right answer searching. After this point, when analyzing a particular race, making repeated efforts to reach a level of certainty will always be in vain. Indeed, finding the point where you realize that any additional clarity is false is a key to this game.
S.A.
posted by Seth Abrams at 7:34 AM
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