The Little Track on the Prairie

This weekend brings us the "Iowa Festival of Racing," a several day event of top-notch racing from Prairie Meadows, highlighted by the Iowa Derby and the Iowa Oaks on Friday night and the Cornhusker Handicap on Saturday. As a regular simulcast player at Prairie Meadows, I particularly enjoy the national spotlight being shown (at least in part) on the small track in Des Moines, Iowa.

I first played Prairie Meadows a while back on a Tuesday afternoon when no other tracks were running. Perhaps because I hit my first 3 bets ever placed there, I continued to return. The racing -- while obviously not at the level of top-tier tracks -- still was quite enjoyable. With this familiarity, I made sure to visit the track on a drive out East last summer -- arriving on a night of two minor stakes for 2-year old Iowa Breds. The facility was pleasant, the beer affordable, and its racino portion provided some nice diversions. I especially loved the Price is Right slot machine where I was able to play the Cliffhanger bonus game and win $20 (do-da-dee-dee-do-da-dee-dee-do-da-dee-dee-do!).

Prairie Meadows is a very handicappable track, and, unlike other small tracks, it is one that will bite you hard if you stray and let yourself be guided by greed -- http://www.trackchampion.com/abrams_axis.aspx. It's a track where being too clever is deadly to a bottom line -- I play my best there when I'm patient and willing to grind (albeit in the exotic pools). It is incumbent to stay with the top jockeys (Birzer, Doocy, Corbett) and stray if and only the horse figures on everything else -- at least on "normal" race days. And, it's a especially great track if you understand the concept of recent form mixed with a good helping of class and can apply it well in wheeled trifectas.

Enjoy the festival of racing!

S.A.

Delightfully British

We've kept the house stocked with plenty of tea and a decent helping of biscuits this week as the Handicapping Life has developed a fairly British theme. Well, better qualify that a bit -- a British Commonwealth theme. As most of you know, this week was the Royal Ascot -- a collection of impressive stakes races from across the Atlantic. And, while I normally don't pay much attention to the European horses, it was a wonderful diversion from your typical non-winners of two 6,250 claimers that populate the random Tuesday afternoon.

It was great racing, but even better, is the sense that racing is something in England. I've always despised the seedy, low-life reputation of American racing in the general public, and long for it to capture a bit of the cache that its splendor deserves. Perhaps, a greater focus on the true horseplayer, and less on the degenerate gambler, will help the game:

http://www.trackchampion.com/abrams_things.aspx

And, in keeping with the British theme, today is the Queen's Plate from Woodbine. A solid field, but two "American" invaders -- Wanna Runner and Sterwins -- are probably the best of the bunch. Watch out for Pipers Thunder, however -- nice win over the course against many of these, and a pedigree to go the distance to boot. Plus, I have my hesitations against Wanna Runner, but I had those at Sunland and Lone Star, too. I also always had hesitations about Flower Alley, but stop trying to beat him, and cashed a nice (and ridiculously foreseeable) exacta yesterday.

And, speaking of forseeability, I leave you with a question to ponder for next time: What is the more important factor in being a successful horseplayer -- Skill or Luck? Or, more specifically, the ability to see a race as clearly as possible, or the ability to admit that most clarity is false?

S.A.

Over the river

Well, it's a great weekend ahead for horseplayers. Unfortunately, I'm going to be on the road for almost the entire weekend. We're heading down to Connecticut for my girlfriend's grandmother's birthday extravaganza, and then swinging by my parents for a father's day celebration. But, don't worry, The Handicapping Life will return next week with its usual panache.

Yet, your visit to this blog doesn't have to be a total loss. Now's a great time to check out my column at Trackchampion. This week's entry, "The line, or Balance is not just a 3-year old filly," just appeared yesterday:

http://www.trackchampion.com/abrams_balance.aspx

And, if you haven't read it yet, here's the link to the previous week's article, "The Horseplayer's Axis of Evil":

http://www.trackchampion.com/abrams_axis.aspx

S.A.

Lava Man Revisited

A couple of days have passed since Lava Man's triumph in a Grade I turf race. While I found myself awestruck (and one only need scroll down to see the magnitude of my feelings), I've been surprised by the negativity surrounding this win. Instead of recognizing the beauty of his performance, many are quick to detract from his victory. The criticisms range from the quality of his competition -- "The quality turf horses retired to breed long ago" --to the idiocy of the other jockeys in the race -- "How could they let him get that easy lead?". Unsurprisingly, the attacks are reminiscent of the attacks levied against Lost in the Fog for the bulk of last summer. But, instead, of revisiting those well-trodden arguments over the requirements for greatness, my curiosity is piqued as to the psychological importance of the concept of greatness in relation to horse racing's inevitable imperfections. Does holding to an ideal help with the disappointments of reality, or does it merely keep us from appreciating greatness in the present? While Secretariat may truly have been the racing fan's messiah, his coming need not prevent an enjoyment of the wonder that the sport provides us now.

I love Lava Man.

After quite a day of racing, my jaw hit the floor about five minutes ago.

It was a great day for fans -- Songster won a great sprint race -- although I was quite impressed with the way Fabulous Strike took the lead. If he returns to a bit easier level, I think he'll dominate there for quite some time. Jazil was quite impressive in winning the Belmont. Not only was he more than I thought, but the ride by Fernando Jara was memorable. It will be fun to watch whether Jazil emerges as a star in the division. Unfortunately, I wouldn't be surprised to hear a retirement announcement soon -- absent a win in the Classic, can his breeding value really improve? And, Bluegrass Cat, did exactly as expected -- a well-bred horse without the real desire to win. From a betting perspective, he's one of my favorite types of horses -- almost a "lock" for that second spot. An exacta wheel with contenders on top serves the purpose well.

But, the performance of the day was Lava Man's win in the Charlie Wittingham. This former claimer has done all that's been asked of him this year. He beat a very solid field in the Big Cap, and then returned to the turf, where he has had some mild success prior to the now legendary claim. He won impressively against state breds in late April, but today's entry seemed like a very ambitious step. And then, he won on the turf in a fashion rarely seen -- strong early, challenged middle, and unbeatable late. I'm so impressed that I'm going to print out his lifetime past performance and add it to my Champions book from DRF. Yes, he's that good. I guess the only remaining question is for his trainer, Doug O'Neil -- The Classic or The Turf?

Finally, in retrospect, the track was noticeably fast at Belmont, but I didn't notice any track bias. But, I did notice a trainer bias -- the big form improvements continued from Contessa in today's 1st and 12th races at Belmont. I'd keep my eye on his entries if I were playing the New York circuit. Of course, though, I don't follow my own advice. A last minute decision off of Taken Not Given -- a horse I've supported since February -- was my worst of the day.

S.A.

A New Ghostzapper Emerges?

The race of the year is this Saturday, limited to three-year olds, and takes place at Belmont Park. And, it's not what you're thinking.

Belmont's 8th race on Saturday, the renamed Woody Stephens Breeder Cup's Stakes (formerly the Riva Ridge) contains just about every top three-year old sprinter in a year loaded with them (if only Lost in the Fog faced a class like this!). It's a remarkable race, and, for a handicapper who lives on the "throw out," it's a race without any real eliminations. Unlike most top races which contain filler or send out a five-horse field, every one of the nine horses entered has earned impressive Beyer figures, and has done so consistently.

Too Much Bling, the 19 1/2 length maiden clearing freak from Thistledown, leads the array of contenders. After some initial attempts to stretch him out, he found a nice home sprinting out in California (his San Miguel was simply awesome) and came back east on Wood Memorial day. There, he blew away Songster, a heavily-hyped horse that next out dominated a field on Preakness day. With that impressive race and its 107 Beyer under his belt, Songster returns to New York seeking revenge. The others are no less impressive:

• Likely earned a 110 beyer in dispensing with Laptop Computer and others in a Keeneland sprint -- less bias than the route -- and coming from slightly off the pace.
• Fabulous Strike came up from the minor leagues and won impressively in an ungraded stakes at Belmont, and his trainer wins 38% of the time -- simply remarkable. This is an additional big step, but he certainly can't be ignored.
• Keyed Entry, a classy horse who came on the scene by beating First Samurai and was the favorite in the Wood Memorial, returns to distance which better suits his pedigree.
• Noonmark, the favorite in the Derby Trial, returns to sprinting, where he lost a thriller to Florida Derby runner up, Sharp Humor, in the Swale.
• And, the remaining entrants, Saint Daimon (who may scratch as he's entered to run on Friday), Dontfearthereaper, and Doc Cheney, all have impressive performances on their resumes.

In a sport where the top contenders tend to be kept separate until the end of the year (except for the 3-year old classics), this is an early summer treat. Yes, I know that the top sprinters don't get the love that the classic routers do, but don't forget, Ghostzapper began his career sprinting.

___

In thinking about the big race, I'm curious what the bias will be at Belmont on Saturday. I've got my eye on the races there today, but I was flat out shocked by the win by Storm Boot Gold in the Ormsby stakes yesterday. Despite tiring fractions and a heated speed duel, this former sprinter held off a classy Gold and Roses in the stretch. It could be a bias, or perhaps just a Contessa horse improving and showing a bit of extra staying power in the stretch -- something that occurred with frequency during the early days of the inner track meet at the Big A.

As much as I'm trying, though, I'm having real trouble getting terribly excited for the Belmont. We're not seeing the best of the division here, and the race has the strange aura of a consolation game. Maybe it's that Bluegrass Cat, a royally-bred horse who doesn't seem to possess that added umph in winning, is the most accomplished of the runners. Or that a really strong case can be made for Sunriver, another "potential" champion with a great pedigree, that hadn't shown much -- I supported him throughout the winter at Gulfstream -- until his win over the track in the Peter Pan Stakes. Or that Steppenwolfer and Jazil are merely above-average closers, who've consistently found the right place at the right time. And, sure, Bob and John won the Wood Memorial, but it was over a horse, Keyed Entry, who shouldn't have been there in the first place due to the aforementioned pedigree limitations. And, while I normally love West Coast horses coming east (Borrego!), that angle is now a bit stale with him. Perhaps, someone new will emerge from this group (Oh So Awesome?) and become a second-half of the year star or one of the inconsistent players will establish himself. But, I'm not holding my breath. Hmm...I wonder how Lawyer Ron's recovery is coming?

And, now, the big announcement:

I will have a weekly column appearing on www.trackchampion.com. The first installment, "The Horseplayer's Axis of Evil," is already up on the site.

Read often and enjoy!

S.A.

Postmortem: Foggy wins!

Lost in the Fog won (barely) and, as expected, the message boards were filled with naysayers protecting the concept of greatness. Noticeably missing, however, were the diehard fans of this horse. I've yet to see more than a handful -- and wonder how many of those are just making an argument for argument's sake. Indeed, the debate has shifted in 2006. No longer do we find his fans arguing for greatness and his detractors wary to bestow it. Instead, it seems the battle is now fought over the past -- the undue disrespect (or adulation -- depending on your point of view) given to the Fog last year.

It's fairly clear -- at least to this writer -- that LITF is not as dominant as he was last year. If you had no history with him and only saw the race on Saturday, you'd probably would be impressed with the move on the turn and the determination he showed in the stretch, but you wouldn't call him a great horse -- under any meaningful standard of the word. And you certainly wouldn't go home, tell your family about him, and start wearing hats with his name.

In any event, though, horsefans should be happy that we have a chance to see him run as a four-year old. In many cases, we never get to see this occur -- our fast-maturing child stars are typically sent to stud long before they lose their cuteness and start working as security guards. It's fun to wonder, however: How would the story be different if he was hurt in training for the Breeders' cup and finished his career undefeated? Would he be viewed as Sadaharu Oh -- holding an impressive record against inferior competition...or would he had have been James Dean?

***

We've got an exciting week upcoming with the Belmont Stakes and its usually terrific undercard. Make sure to come back later in the week for some analysis and a very exciting announcement.

S.A.

Enigmas, Emotion, and the Fog

I used to hate this weekend as a kid. Why did we have to wait another week for the Belmont? I had fallen into this very nice bi-weekly triple crown rhythm, and I didn't want to wait any longer. Sure, I understood the grueling nature of the series and the need for horses to be properly rested, but I just didn't have all that much patience. Well, with the confirmation that Sweetnorthernsaint will skip the Belmont, no horse will run in all three of the classics this year, and, thus, these traditional "need for rest" arguments are moot! Let's run the Stakes now -- I'll go fire up the grill and turn on ABC! Don't worry, though, the "mature" fan in me isn't seriously proposing that we move up the Belmont. I'm willing to wait another week (or even longer) to insure that these animals are fully rested and healthy.

Despite having to wait for the Belmont (incidentally, due to my love of pedigrees, my favorite race of the classics), this weekend is not devoid of drama. We've got older fillies and mares running out in California (with Star Parade getting the co-high weight, hopefully no one will be upset with these weight assignments), some Grade II turf racing from Canada, and an intriguing turf race with a nice field of 3-year old fillies at Belmont. But, hands down, the drama of the weekend will occur about 5:58 p.m. local time at Churchill Downs, when the lightning rod known as Lost in the Fog will break from the starting gate with a field of 6 other older sprinters.

In an original draft of this piece, I originally described Lost in the Fog as an enigma. But, it occurred to me that it's not the horse that's "puzzling, ambiguous, or inexplicable," but, instead, it's the fans and the haters of this horse. Whether it's the DRF's Mike Watchmaker keeping him low on his sprint rankings, or the cadre of fans wearing LITF hats and viewing this horse as the second coming, this is a horse that simply won't be ignored. Mention this horse at a track or on a message board, and voices will be raised within ten minutes. This puzzle is certainly not a function of three-year old sprinters -- indeed, nobody is losing their voice arguing for or against the greatness of Too Much Bling (at least not yet...).

Perhaps LITF's modest breeding brings out the populist in fans which always yearn for an underdog. Or, maybe, it's simply the way he dominated the early fraction of races (until the Breeders' Cup) last year. Beyer speed figures aside (which were always quite nice with the Fog), his races were always visually impressive and appeal to the innate something that draws us to horse racing in the first place. Yet, detractors were quick to point out that he ran in an incredibly weak three-year old sprint division, and, other than the Sprint, never faced large, competitive fields (incidentally, a past performance review of all LITF races shows an average field size of 7.3 horses). But, above all else, like a conservative culture critic, his detractors attempted to use the evidence to protect that all-too common horse racing moniker for greatness: "the super horse." Indeed, in a world where we long for greatness, perhaps our desire to believe occurs far too quickly, in spite of a inconclusive body of evidence.

The detractors had their day at the Breeders' Cup, where LITF couldn't keep up in the stretch and lost to eventual Met Mile champion Silver Train, among a half-dozen others. Inevitably, his supporters came up with a bevy of excuses to explain the loss (detention barn, etc.) and continued to defend their superhorse. It didn't help their case that LITF lost his first race as a four-year old in a 4 horse field and, in doing so, lost to a former claimer (although do people make the same negative arguments when a horse they dislike loses to Lava Man?) .

However, unlike that last race at Bay Meadows, a loss by LITF (installed as even money M/L favorite), regardless of the strengths of any of the other contenders, will seriously dull the coat of this "superhorse." With a win, his supporters will mobilize and begin to move towards redemption on an upcoming Fall day at Chuchill. Yet, win or lose, the arguments will resurface at the tracks and on the message boards on Saturday night. And, isn't that what makes this all so much fun?

S.A.

---

(6/3 12:36 p.m.): Two interesting points: LITF is carrying 124 pounds -- 7 pounds more than the 2nd weight. After that, every other horse is 115 and under (ed. late weight changes moved a few others up, but still no horse is more than 117) . I've seen the studies that weight is irrelevant, but I think this might warrant a bit of handicapping consideration -- at least if you believe that the early fractions might be contested. But, more importantly, it gives a ready-made excuse to his supporters.

Another interesting factor here is Mark Guidry taking the mount for Todd Pletcher on Yes Yes Yes. I don't think I've seen this combination before and my jockey/trainer stats concur. I have tremendous respect for Pletcher and tend to give extra points to jockeys that he selects.

Is this thing on?

It's a quiet Thursday night, and I just sat down to open a Word document to randomly write and think about horse racing. I've been typing similar thoughts in Word for the past several years, and, typically, I just forget about them. But, for some crazy reason, I've decided to start a blog to publish all my future thoughts about horse racing and handicapping. If you happen to find yourself here, I hope not only that you enjoy what you read, but that what you read leads to further enjoyment and appreciation of the races.

Anyhow, I anticipate three types of entries in this journal:

1. Actual analyses of horse races: I don't expect to post traditional selections here, but, instead, to try a new focus. I've always been a sucker for drama in sports. Whether it's a 7-game playoff series, a last minute drive (or fumble) to decide a football game, or a subtle off-the field story line, I love how sports tells us stories. Horse racing is no exception to this drama, but, unlike the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry in which a casual fan knows the story almost innately, the story lines within horse racing must be uncovered by the fan. Every day I dig through past performances and discover wonderful bits of drama in upcoming races across the country. In these entries, I will share this drama, both prior to and after the event.

2. Musings about handicapping: Some, but not lots, of ink has been spilled about the best handicapping methods, especially during the last thirty years. Class, speed, form, pedigree -- the list could go on for quite some time. While I envision literal musings about the effectiveness of various methodologies and factors, I don't plan to rehash most of this stuff. Instead, the majority of this category will be with other topics involving handicapping -- dealing with losing, the limits of human insight, a world of gray, the second choice.

3. The handicapping life: Finally, as I became a horseplayer, I noticed that many of the traits that lead to success in handicapping also lead to success more generally in life. Risk-assessment, decision making with uncertainty, assertiveness, and contrarian thinking are just a few examples. In these entries, I plan to leverage some of my past studies (yes, I was a social philosopher at one time) and discuss how the not-always obvious relationship between horseplaying and living the good life.

I hope you come back often and enjoy the blog.

S.A.