Friday, July 14, 2006

To everything, there is a season

Ah, it's good to get back to the handicapping life. I apologize for the long delay in writing, but I think I have a fairly decent excuse -- I got married! Much like the best of handicapping decisions, this one was relatively spontaneous and felt absolutely right in my gut. Engaged last Wednesday evening, we bought rings on Thursday and were married Friday morning at the home of a local justice of the peace. A short jaunt up to Quebec City gave us a wonderful weekend honeymoon. We do, however, have visions of Ireland (and, of course, a visit to Curragh) for a longer honeymoon in the future.

So, needless to say, I missed watching Lava Man and his narrowest of triumphs in the Hollywood Gold Cup last Saturday. After watching the replay, however, I've developed some worries that he's slipping off form....although the Beyer did come back a strong 108. Based on last year, I'd still prefer to see Doug O'Neil rest him a bit, in order to freshen him for the race that will make his career -- the Breeders' Cup Classic.

In thinking about Lava Man's form cycle and the cliff he fell off last year, I'm reminded of a theory that I developed in my first few months of handicapping. In my first few trips to the OTB in Denver, I noticed that certain horses tended to excel at certain times of the year. In analyzing a race, I'd simply look at the calendar and see how a horse had performed in the current month in the past. I was very loose with these assessments -- looking generally at the particular season and see if I noticed a difference in performance. I evenutally abandoned this approach as unscientific, but eventually I took many of the concepts and transformed them into a quasi-form cycle assessment. And, while I'm still not sure that the seasonal theory has any validity, it doesn't really matter for the qualitiative handicapper. Because approaching a past performance from a different point of view than the basics can get you deeper into a qualitative assessment of how a horse has performed in the past and, most importantly, why he or she has performed in that fashion. And, so long as you're not married to the initial basis for the investigation, when using an approach such as this one, you are far more likely to reach novel conclusions about a race.

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We've got exciting races all throughout the weekend. Lost in the Fog reappears in the Smile Sprint and faces a very tough field and has to carry 125 pounds. Speaking of LITF, was anyone else turned off by the news that Gilchrest and Aleo would have retired the Fog if he had lost 4 in a row, simply to protect the image that this horse was once a superhorse? Statements like that really make me wonder how much of the fog was really just mirrors...and a whole bunch of smoke. Also from Calder, personal favorite Too Much Bling looks to rebound from the loss in the Woody Stephens in the Carry Back. And, later this afternoon, TMB's half-sister, Littlebitofbling tries for the second time to break her maiden in Thistledown's 10th. I love her dam, Rose Colored Lady, and I'm beginning to believe (although unscientific) that we may have some large heart size (X-factor) being passed on from this dam. Combined with the two-year old filly prowess of the Carson City line, we could be looking at a fun horse here. And while on the subject of fun sprinters, it's worth noting that Fabulous Strike -- discussed below in the entries of June 9 and 10 -- has already come back to win a minor stake at Belmont -- a much-needed return to his proper level. As proven by his domination of the field, this was yet another wise move by the other Todd, the talented and successful Todd Bettie.

Enjoy the races.

S.A.

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